[ 01 ] THE AUDIT STACK

Six checks. Zero exceptions.

Each is taught in detail in the curriculum. Each must pass before a strategy goes live.

[ M.01 ]

Deflated Sharpe Ratio

The headline Sharpe is a lie when you backtested 10,000 strategies. We deflate every reported Sharpe by the number of trials, autocorrelation, and skew/kurtosis (Bailey & López de Prado, 2014).

DSR = Φ( ((SR − E[SR_max]) · √(N−1)) / √(1 − γ₃·SR + (γ₄−1)/4·SR²) )
▸ STUDENT TAKEAWAY

Your students stop being fooled by 3.0+ Sharpe screenshots and learn to ask: "how many trials produced this?"

[ M.02 ]

Combinatorial Purged CV

k-fold cross-validation leaks information through label overlap. CPCV purges training folds of any sample whose label horizon overlaps the test set, with an embargo period to neutralize serial correlation.

φ(t) = { i : [t_i, t_i + h] ∩ [t_test, t_test + h + ε] ≠ ∅ }
▸ STUDENT TAKEAWAY

Your students will stop overfitting and ship strategies that survive contact with reality.

[ M.03 ]

Walk-Forward with Anchored Origin

Single backtests are overfit by construction. We use anchored walk-forward: re-estimate every N bars, validate on out-of-sample window, never look forward, never re-tune on the test set.

OOS_t = f( D_{train}^{1..t} ) → score on D_{t+1..t+m}
▸ STUDENT TAKEAWAY

A simple rule your students can apply tomorrow: never report a metric that touched the test set.

[ M.04 ]

Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio

Probability that the true Sharpe exceeds a benchmark, given sample length and return moments. Far more honest than a point estimate — especially below 36 months of live data.

PSR(SR*) = Φ( (ŜR − SR*)·√(n−1) / √(1 − γ₃·ŜR + (γ₄−1)/4·ŜR²) )
▸ STUDENT TAKEAWAY

Your students learn to say "73% confidence Sharpe > 1" instead of "my Sharpe is 1.4".

[ M.05 ]

Realistic Transaction Costs

Linear slippage + impact-square-root model + bid/ask. Strategy survives a 2× cost-multiplier stress test or it does not deploy. Most retail "edges" die at this step.

c(q) = s/2 + α · σ · √(q / ADV)
▸ STUDENT TAKEAWAY

Your students kill bad strategies in 5 lines of code, before risking a dollar.

[ M.06 ]

Bayesian Position Sizing

Fractional Kelly with a posterior over the edge, not a point estimate. Shrinkage toward zero proportional to estimation uncertainty. The result: smaller bets when you know less.

f* = (μ − r) / σ² · E[ posterior ] · k_fractional
▸ STUDENT TAKEAWAY

Your students replace gut sizing with a rule that adapts to how confident the data actually allows them to be.

[ 02 ] OPERATING PRINCIPLES

What we refuse to do.

NO SCREENSHOTS

All performance figures derive from a read-only broker API and an independent fund administrator. Audit reports are available under NDA.

NO P-HACKING

Every reported metric is deflated by the number of trials and adjusted for non-normal returns.

NO LOOK-AHEAD

All datasets are point-in-time. Earnings, fundamentals, and corporate actions are timestamped at first public availability — never restated values.

NO SURVIVORSHIP BIAS

Universe definitions include delisted instruments. Backtests run on the same survivorship-free universe as live.

REPRODUCIBLE

Every strategy ships with a Docker image, frozen requirements, raw data hashes, and the seed used. Anyone with the package can rerun the experiment bit-for-bit.

HONEST CAPACITY

We publish capacity estimates. When AUM approaches soft caps, the strategy closes. Educational content is not affected by this.

[ 03 ] REFERENCE

Stand on giants, cite them.

Our framework draws directly from these works. If you teach trading without having read them, you are guessing.

CORE READING

  • López de Prado, M.Advances in Financial Machine Learning (Wiley, 2018)
  • Bailey, D. & López de Prado, M.The Deflated Sharpe Ratio (J. Portfolio Mgmt, 2014)
  • Harvey, C., Liu, Y. & Zhu, H.…and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns (RFS, 2016)
  • Almgren, R. & Chriss, N.Optimal Execution of Portfolio Transactions (1999)

EXTENDED

  • Cont, R.Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts (2001)
  • Ledoit, O. & Wolf, M.A well-conditioned estimator for large-dimensional covariance (2004)
  • Avellaneda, M. & Lee, J.-H.Statistical arbitrage in the U.S. equities market (2010)
  • Moskowitz, Ooi & PedersenTime series momentum (JFE, 2012)
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